Same poll taken one month apart shows which presidential candidate has momentum in key states

SCRANTON, Pa. — With less than four weeks until Election Day in November, new polls in three crucial battleground states indicate former President Trump is making gains, but he remains in a toss-up race with Vice President Kamala Harris.

According to surveys from Quinnipiac University, Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, holds a 49% to 46% advantage over Trump, the Republican standard-bearer, in Pennsylvania.

But the former president edges the vice president 50% to 47% in Michigan and 48% to 46% in Wisconsin.

Harris’ three-point edge in Pennsylvania is down from a six-point lead in Quinnipiac’s previous survey from a month ago.

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Vice President Kamala Harris, right, and former President Trump during their first and likely only debate Sept. 10, 2024, in Philadelphia.  (Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The results in Michigan, where Trump’s up by three points, are a switch from last month, when Quinnipiac’s survey indicated Harris leading by five points.

And in Wisconsin, where the new poll gives the former president a two-point edge, it’s a slight change from September, when the vice president held a one-point edge.

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“That was then, this is now. The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said.

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, along with Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, had razor-thin margins that decided President Biden’s 2020 White House victory over Trump. And the seven states are likely to determine if Trump or Harris wins the 2024 presidential election.

Former President Trump addresses the crowd at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Oct. 5, 2024. The rally was at the same location as the one on July 13 at which an assassination attempt was made on Trump’s life. (Matthew McDermott for Fox News Digital)

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are also the three Rust Belt states that make up the Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall.”

The party reliably won all three states for a quarter-century before Trump narrowly captured them in the 2016 election to win the White House.

Four years later, in 2020, Biden carried all three states by razor-thin margins to put them back in the Democrats’ column and defeat Trump.

Both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, as well as their running mates, have made repeated stops in the three states this summer.

Trump is holding campaign events Wednesday in Scranton and Reading, Pennsylvania. And Harris returns to Pennsylvania early next week for a stop in Erie.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, addresses the Economic Club of Pittsburgh on the Carnegie Mellon University campus in Pittsburgh Sept. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Both candidates have also campaigned in Michigan and Wisconsin over the past few days. 

All three states are also holding crucial Senate elections that will likely determine if the GOP wins back the chamber’s majority.

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In Pennsylvania, the Quinnipiac University poll indicates Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads Republican challenger Dave McCormick 51% to 43%.

According to the survey, in the race to succeed Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Rep. Mike Rogers are deadlocked at 48%.

And in Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin edges Republican challenger Eric Hovde 50% to 46%, the poll indicates.

The Quinnipiac University polls were conducted Oct. 3-7, with 1,412 likely voters in Pennsylvania, 1,007 likely voters in Michigan and 1,073 likely voters in Wisconsin questioned. 

The sampling error in Pennsylvania is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. In Michigan, it’s plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. And, in Wisconsin, it’s plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.